The Greens rating reached 27%, while that of the CDU / CSU was 26%. The results of the poll on June 8 confirmed this.
The Social Democrats and the far right of Alternatives for Germany are far behind. They are fighting among themselves for third place in popularity. No more than 13% are ready to vote for them.
At the elections to the European Parliament held at the end of May, the Greens in Germany took the second place for the first time, gaining 20.5% of the vote. The Christian Democrats - 28.9%, and although this is a victory, but with the worst result in history. The Greens have become stronger in the role of the second most important political force in Germany. And with the fall in popularity of the successor to Merkel Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, according to some German journalists and experts, they can become the main one.
Why did the Greens become so popular?
There are several reasons:
Studies conducted before the elections to the European Parliament show that the Germans are now most worried about the state of the environment. This is the main thing in the Greens program.
The attention of German citizens to the problem of public debt, the stability of the euro and the maintenance of peace and security has decreased - that is, everything that Christian Democrats and Social Democrats talk a lot about. The crisis of these parties is one of the main reasons for the growing popularity of the Greens. This is especially true of the SPD: they were junior partners in three of the four Merkel governments and in the eyes of voters lost their ideological identity. Partly, the Greens are now claiming the role of the main left force.
In the elections to the European Parliament, the Greens managed to mobilize their electorate better than other parties. According to one study, 650,000 potential Green supporters did not take part in the vote. 2.5 million people did not come to vote for the SPD, 2.25 million for the AdH. The support of the Greens in large cities is especially great. After the success in the elections to the European Parliament, the Greens were no longer perceived as a niche party of the same topic.
A week before the European Parliament election, the popular German music video blogger Retso released a 55-minute video called “Disclosure of the CDU”, which to date has been watched by about 14.5 million people. At the end of the video, he called for a vote for the Greens or the Left Party. Many German experts believe that the video strengthened the Green position among young people: 33% of citizens aged 18 to 24 years old voted for them.
But what about the “Alternative for Germany” that everyone was talking about?
The fact that AdG may have problems began to speak immediately after their sensational success in the 2017 elections. In recent years, they have not gained a charismatic leader, and the reduction in the severity of the immigration problem has not allowed them to promote their favorite topic. The political chaos in which the UK plunged after the Brexit referendum forced them to reject the toughest Euroskeptical statements. As a result, they gained by one and a half percentage points less in the elections to the European Parliament than in the elections to the Bundestag. The transformation into the most influential political party in Germany is at least postponed.
Will the Greens win in the next elections in Germany?
We do not know. Although the growing popularity of “Greens” is a fairly steady trend, it can be reversed almost at any time. Less than two years ago, in the elections to the Bundestag, they were the worst of the parties that went to parliament, gaining only 8.9%. In 2011, after the disaster in Fukushima, the Greens rating reached about the same indicators as now, but rather quickly declined.
The German edition of Capital believes that environmental protection is too volatile and it is far from a fact that it can attract the attention of citizens for a long time. It is necessary to slightly worsen the socio-economic situation, as other problems will come to the fore - the same immigration. The first signs of a possible crisis were revealed in the recent mini-recession experienced by Germany.
What will change in Germany if the Greens come to power?
We do not know. Since the Greens will almost certainly not get the absolute majority of seats, much will depend on who they join the government coalition. It can be almost any party, except Adg.
Now the Greens are represented in the governments of 9 of the 16 federal states in the composition of different coalitions - with Christian Democrats and Social Democrats. Since 2011, the Prime Minister of Baden-Württemberg has been the “green” Winfried Kretchman. According to the experience of the land, one of the richest in Germany, it can be concluded that the “greens” do a good job of managing under favorable external circumstances: economic indicators are growing, and innovations are not so actively introduced anywhere in Germany. The agenda of the “green” government will most likely be the reform of law enforcement agencies, as was done in Baden-Württemberg, since the idea of the increased influence of the right-wing on them is quite popular in Germany.