The results of a demographic study conducted by the Bertelsmann Foundation produced the effect of a bombshell: by 2025 the number of schoolchildren will increase by a million. This figure sharply diverged from the forecast of the Conference of Ministers of Culture and Education of the Federal States. According to her calculations, published back in 2013, by the middle of the next decade, the number of schoolchildren will decrease somewhat and stop at around 7.2 million.
Experts of the Bertelsmann Foundation took into account the demographic changes caused by the migration crisis, in particular, a much larger number of children in refugee families from the Middle East. Based on this, the number of pupils in secondary schools will increase in seven years to 8.3 million.
Hence the obvious conclusion: the number of teachers, even taking into account the cadre movement in the industry (that is, the proportion of those who come to school, receive a pedagogical education, and retire) will diverge from the actual need. The shortage of teachers will be from 50 to 60 thousand, and a good half of the deficit will fall on primary school.
In the first to fourth grades, there is already a shortage of teachers. As, actually, and classes. And school buildings. By 2025, it will be necessary to open at least 2.4 thousand new primary schools to accommodate all first-graders. And who will come to them at the first lesson? ..
Relying on current graduates of schools who, having assessed the shortage in the pedagogical industry and the associated career prospects, will elect the profession of a school teacher en masse, is unrealistic. The prestige of this profession has visibly faded in our time. On the other hand, the number of specialties is growing - from mechatronics to an automaker, the demand for which can be said to be brutal. With the immediate provision of work and decent earnings. And with the scheme of personnel training, not so cumbersome, like school teachers or, for example, doctors.
The cumbersome teacher training system brings the situation to the point of absurdity. Despite the lack of personnel, there are a significant number of teachers in the country, including those with experience in elementary school, who immigrated to Germany and whose professional degrees are not recognized. There are many such unclaimed teachers among the Russian Germans who moved from the post-Soviet republics. Their problem is that there is no automatic recognition of pedagogical diplomas obtained in “third countries”. People who have successfully worked in a school must complete their education in accordance with the German program. And in order to get the right to work in a comprehensive school, you must pass the profile state exam (German. Lehramt), which is notable for its particular complexity.
The shortage of teachers forces us to give up some formalities. In some federal states, for example, a number of non-teaching professions have opened the way for teaching in primary schools. It is not necessary to pass state examinations in this case. However, this is unlikely to help teachers from the former Soviet Union, since we are not talking about the simplified recognition of a foreign diploma.